Forecasts of Future Oil Output

On this page are several graphs representing the predictions of future oil consumption by various stakeholders in the international debate. Which ones of these graphs are believable? Click on name of author or agency to obtain details of their respective projections of growth or decline in global oil consumption.

Hubbert, 1971 World Oil, from Energy and Power
US EIA, 2004 Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios From "Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert" by John H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse. This defense of an earlier forecast by EIA is quite extraordinary. What absurd future can this graph possibly depict? Can the global consumption of oil double or triple over the next couple of decades and then drop at 10% per year? What kind of world would that be? Hang onto your hats, this is going to be a wild ride!
Campbell, 1997 Production Scenarios	Duncan, 1997 Global Output and AMPEC Output
Ivanhoe, 1997 World Oil Supply	Laherrere, 1997 World's Liquid Production
Chevron, 1998 Oil Demand Outlook	Shell, 1997 [link to reference no longer available] Dematerialisation Energy Demand Scenario
EIA, 2001 World Oil Consumption 1970-2020	International Energy Agency, 1998 World Energy Prospects to 2020
Campbell, 2003 The Growing Gap	Campbell, 2004 All Hydrocarbons

Often people ask about the key differences between various scenarios. The geologists and engineers illustrate the rise, peak and decline of oil. The oil companies and governments draw a rising graph, never depicting peak nor decline. One must ask, "Which approach has integrity?"

updated 2004 September 6